transparentgrid.com

The latest trade as for midnight Eastern time was 9.3:

Update: Krugman does his own bit of Intrade analysis.

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I never noticed until the Clinton-Obama battle of how unhinged from reality Maureen O’Dowd actually is.  Her latest column, post-debate but before the ones who really matter were polled, is one of these, “why is Obama such a wimp to not attack McCain more?” piles of crap.

The tribe spoke, Obama won and your hackneyed views lost.

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In an article, where the McCain campaign can only be described as schizophrenic, we are told on one hand that Palin is going through desperation-time debate training like it were a montage scene from an 80’s movie (think “Top Gun”), but on the other hand the campaign insists on raising expectations for this Friday:

“This debate will probably determine her political persona for the rest of the campaign,” said Saul Anuzis, the Republican chairman of Michigan. “I expect Palin to show the country she is capable, articulate and has the leadership skills necessary to serve.”

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I didn’t need to rely on the punditocracy to enlighten me on this, but the piling on is starting:

Carl Bernstein, here.

Fareed Zakaria: “Two weeks ago I flew to Tokyo, crossing over the North Pole. Does that make me an expert on Santa Claus?”

Andrew Sullivan: “Until he drops Palin from the ticket, McCain is simply not a serious candidate for president.”

Oh, and Fox disappeared the AP piece that Republican doubts about Palin are growing.

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Via boingboing

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Don’t you hate it when the very first time your running mate is asked an off the cuff question about incursions into Pakistan she agrees with your Democratic opponent rather than your completely opaque position?

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The Intrade for whether Palin will withdraw as VP candidate opened at 6.2 today and jumped as high as 9.9.

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From the NYT last month:

At the very least, the process reflects Mr. McCain’s history of making fast, instinctive and sometimes risky decisions. “I make them as quickly as I can, quicker than the other fellow, if I can,” Mr. McCain wrote, with his top adviser Mark Salter, in his 2002 book, “Worth the Fighting For.” “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”

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Bridget Johnson, at the mainly right wing Pajamas Media, muses that Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana, would have been a better VP pick for McCain:

But I’ve rarely seen a leader so pulled together in the face of crisis as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. And on the eve of Gustav, as Jindal delivered some of the most comprehensive and detailed press briefings around (with information subsequently printed and easily accessible for all on the governor’s Web site), I wondered if, after all was said and done, it would become clear that Jindal should have been No. 2 on the GOP ticket.

That is exactly what I thought during Gustav. From afar, Jindal’s management of Gustav reminded me of how Obama has run his McCain - efficient with a minimum of fluff or fuss. When McCain had a choice of young, ground-breaking evangelical Governors, he clearly picked the wrong one.

The best part of Johnson’s post is the delusional comments by readers:

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Smart move by David Plouffe [via Byron York at NRO]:

We’ve looked at tapes of Gov. Palin’s debates.  We expect that she’ll give a great performance next Thursday.

Nico Pittney at Huffington Post asserts that this isn’t just playing the raise the expectations game, but a real concern:

But despite Palin’s multiple cringe-inducing interview moments over the last few weeks, this sentiment from Obama aides is not just theater for the media’s consumption. Privately, Democratic campaign officials have sent video clips of Palin’s previous debates to the Huffington Post, noting her strong performances against more experienced Alaskan pols.

There is a legitimate sense of unease that the bar has been set so low for Palin that even a modest performance will be seen as a major success — and that Palin may be capable of much more.

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3 of the last 11 elected presidents were replaced by their Vice President.  In percentage terms, 27% of the time, the VP has had to step in.  Had one bullet taken a sightly different trajectory, Reagan would have been #4.  A cancer survivor has never been elected president and John McCain would be the oldest man to ever have been elected to the Oval Office.

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I’ve been saying for the past two days that Palin’s days as VP candidate are numbered.

Radio talker, Ed Schultz, reported yesterday [via Andrew Sullivan] that McCain insiders are now outwardly talking about how awful Palin prepping for next Friday’s scheduled debate:

McCain Camp insiders say Palin “clueless”
Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people
are more than concerned about Palin.

The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.”

Now, think back a couple months. I can’t recall a single negative leak from inside the McCain campaign until now. Davis and Schmidt run a pretty watertight tight ship, so any leak like this has to be considered significant. My guess is that everyone running the campaign is making the calculus of what is worse for McCain’s chances: dumping Palin now or letting the upcoming debate explode into a disaster from which recovery is all but impossible. I would say that a faction has concluded that the latter is the worse option and is now finding a way to kick her back to Alaska.

Update: More fears emerging from the right.  Shorter Rich Lowry - “When the whole thing implodes I can say, ‘I told you so.’”

I’ve been swamped with other stuff, but just for the record: I thought Palin was dreadful. She obviously didn’t have the reaction to the Charlie Gibson interview that I had hoped. She had better be better prepared for next week or she risks damaging her political brand forevermore.

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I wrote earlier today that by the end of next week Palin will withdraw as V.P. because of growing concerns that she is not up to the task based on a column at NRO by Kathleen Parker.  Palin worries are getting closer to bursting into the mainstream media.

Politico has a piece up tonight with headline, “GOP concerned about Palin.”

Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, says Palin’s recent CBS appearance isn’t disqualifying but is certainly alarming. “You can’t continue to have interviews like that and not take on water.”

“I have not been blown away by the interviews from her, but at the same time, I haven’t come away from them thinking she doesn’t know s—t,” said Chris Lacivita, a GOP strategist. “But she ain’t Dick Cheney, nor Joe Biden and definitely not Hillary Clinton.”

I don’t see her making it to the debate because with tonight’s presidential debate being a draw, at best, and early tracking polls saying Obama won, the McCain will see far more downside to next Friday’s V.P. debate than upside. A disastrous performance by her will lead to the campaign’s almost certain collapse.

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While some are complaining that MSNBC caved in by pulling the plug on an ad by Brave New PAC questioning McCain’s health, I am not so upset.  The ad will get far more attention now that it was publically yanked than it ever may have had it just run a few times on MSNBC.  Now the door is opened to start talking whether the erratic candidate is physically (or emotionally) fit to serve.  Thanks, Bill O’Reilly!

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The Washington Monthly’s “Political Animal” blog references a NRO piece by wingnut Kathleen Parker where she suggests that Palin ought to drop out of the race and that she ought to do it for her country (read for the survival of the GOP).

I could definitely see that happening between Saturday and the middle of next week before Friday’s scheduled debate.  The carefully prepared interviews with Gibson and Couric were p.r. disasters.  I don’t think that anyone believes that she would fare any better under the klieglights of a live debate with Gwen Ifell.  Parker suggests that Palin use her family as an excuse (again) to justify dropping out.

That would, of course, would be another razzle-dazzle play by McCain which has come to be expected of the erratic (here and here) candidate.  He would have to replace Palin, though, with someone who is like her ideologically but the exact opposite of her communications ability.  You heard it here first: by the end of next week McCain will be - Mike Huckabee.

 Update: While others at NRO are still guzzling the Kool Aide while admitting watching Palin is cringe-worthy.

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This is just getting ridiculous.

 Just last week, McCain tells the world that the American economy is fundamentally sound.  Now his flacks are claiming that we are in whole new territory (after the markets stabilized):

McCain advisors say they will do all the debates but the schedule is up in the air. 
They also deny that there is a political calculation in this and say without action the country could slide into a Depression by Monday and added “we’ll see 12 percent unemployment” if action is not completed. GOP sources say they believe the current deal is dead on the Hill and reject suggestions that without McCain’s vote Democrats would not support a package.

By the way, The Economist, defines “depression” as such:

A bad, depressingly prolonged RECESSION in economic activity. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining OUTPUT. A slump is where output falls by at least 10%; a depression is an even deeper and more prolonged slump.

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Note that last night I suggested that Obama reach out to McCain to approach the financial situation jointly.  It appears that this morning the Obama campaign did exactly that:

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

Now it appears that rather than taking such a measured and statesman-like approach, the McCain campaign has pulled a fast one. McCain has announced he is suspending his campaign and returning to D.C. to focus on the “crisis.” Furthermore, he is calling for a postponement of Friday’s debate.

My initial response: what the hell are they thinking?

First of all the true crisis was last week before the $77 billion bailout plan was announced when the markets were gyrating wildly. Once the plan was put forward by Paulsen, the markets calmed down. Last night’s announcement by Warren Buffet that he Berkshire Hathaway is investing $5 billion in Goldman Sachs further calmed the markets that a thougtful resolution would be reached. McCain’s desperate attempt here to grab the political spotlight at the expense of a the measured tones we have seen in Congress the last couple days undermines the relative tranquility that has been acheived.

Second, the situation will not be helped by McCain’s presence, or Obama’s. Senators Chris Dodd and Richard Shelby have done a great job in highlighting the unease over the proposed bill. McCain, who is not even on the Senate Finance Committee, will only serve to make the situation even more political than it already is.

I have to agree with Josh Marshall’s assessment:

Desperate and Reckless: Ramp up Georgia Crisis for votes; Call off half the GOP convention; pick a demonstrably unqualified freshman governor to salvage his campaign; calls for firing head of the SEC; now ask to have presidential debates delayed or canceled so he can politicize the bailout debate …

Update: Harry Reid agrees with my assessment on the presence of the candidates:

“This is a critical time for our country. While I appreciate that both candidates have signaled their willingness to help, Congress and the Administration have a process in place to reach a solution to this unprecedented financial crisis.
“I understand that the candidates are putting together a joint statement at Senator Obama’s suggestion. But it would not be helpful at this time to have them come back during these negotiations and risk injecting presidential politics into this process or distract important talks about the future of our nation’s economy. If that changes, we will call upon them. We need leadership; not a campaign photo op.

“If there were ever a time for both candidates to hold a debate before the American people about this serious challenge, it is now.”

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Today’s must read on what the Grand Old Party is up to.

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Looking at the big economic picture, the current Wall Street meltdown could not have come at a worse time six weeks before the presidential election.  I wrote last night that McCain may be cooking up a diabolical plan to run against Obama for supporting his GOP president’s plan.  Newt Gingrich, for one, thinks that would be a great idea to have McCain run against the Bush-Obama tax-payer sellout.  Amazingly, Congressional Democrats have figured out that the fix is in and are now signaling that without McCain’s support the bail-out plan is DOA.

In other words, McCain is being dropped into a box and the lid is being securely fastened.  He can’t run around claiming he is the man of the people while lambasting Obama for having precisely the same reservations over the bailout plan and then try to hoodwink Democrats into supporting what Henry Paulsen say is critical and has to be done like immediately.

In the words of America’s least popular president, you, John McCAin, are either with us or against us.

If the report is accurate, this is huge news for Obama.  Until now, his fear must have been palpable that McCain would try to pain Obama into a corner.  With the table being turned on McCain, this provides Obama with a marvelous opportunity.  During Friday’s debate, maybe Obama should suggest that for the good of the country, he and McCain ought to be unified on this issue of critical national and global importance so that the markets can gain confidence and start letting capital flow to America’s small businesses and consumers again.

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John McCain must be seriously ticking off the secular conservative base of the GOP.  Today George Will essentially calls McCain emotionally unfit to be president:

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

In any case, McCain’s smear — that Cox “betrayed the public’s trust” — is a harbinger of a McCain presidency. For McCain, politics is always operatic, pitting people who agree with him against those who are “corrupt” or “betray the public’s trust,” two categories that seem to be exhaustive — there are no other people.

. . .

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

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