Gallup suggests that young voter turnout may be the same as it ever was. Poke around the Gallup site, though, and what jumps out is that Obama will probably swamp McCain in the demographic.
Among the 13% percent of registered voters who say this is the first time they will vote in a presidential election, 65% say they will vote for Barack Obama and 30% say they will vote for John McCain.
If this is McCain’s idea of boots on the ground, I don’t see how this can even be close. When you scroll down the story and see the nearly empty phone banks imagine an Obama office in a non-swing state like California. At mine in Hollywood last Sunday there were at least 75 volunteers and there were maybe a dozen other calling sites just in the L.A. area.
A couple of Pennsylvania polls have things a bit closer than I like. But then a few more other polls put Obama at a double digit lead. Thus I’m not as willing to right off McCain’s efforts as not “paying off.” We really won’t know anything until Tuesday, because it is one of the few states without early voting.
Despite that moderate concern, what you will not hear go past my lips is that annoying liberal cry of, “I’m afraid [fill in voter suppression, Bradley effect, etc. here ].” Democrats need to overcome that Chicago Cubs fan state of mind where one is filled with hope but resigned to eventual defeat.
Overall, the trends of the states that continue to come into play are favoring Obama significantly. Having to suddenly defend home turf is not a good sign. Ask Al Gore and then go out an canvass or make some phone calls at local headquarters.
Oh, and Nate Silver says to not get freaked out over Zogby (what else is new)
Los Feliz, California. October 30, 2008.
Look wingnut bloggers, you need to agree on a strategy. Is it that Barack Obama was born in Kenya, and is thus ineligible to be president, or is it that he is Malcom X’s love child?
Pink Floyd, The Wall, “Pink,” 1982:
Are there any queers in the theater tonight? Get ‘em up against the wall!
That one in the spotlight, he doesn’t look right! Get him up against the wall!
And that one looks Jewish… and that one’s a coon! Who let all this riff raff into the room?
That one’s smoking a joint! And that one’s got spots! If I had my way, I’d have all of you shot!
McCain rally, 2008 [via Eschaton]:
Audience members escorted out of Sen. John McCain’s, R-Ariz., campaign event in Cedar Falls questioned why they were asked to leave Sunday’s rally even though they were not protesting.
David Zarifis, director of public safety for the University of Northern Iowa, said McCain staffers requested UNI police assist in escorting out “about four or five” people from the rally prior to McCain’s speech.
…
“When I started talking to them, it kind of became clear that they were kind of just telling people to leave that they thought maybe would be disruptive, but based on what? Based on how they looked,” Elborno said. “It was pretty much all young people, the college demographic.”Elborno said even McCain supporters were among those being asked to leave.
“I saw a couple that had been escorted out and they were confused as well, and the girl was crying, so I said ‘Why are you crying? and she said ‘I already voted for McCain, I’m a Republican, and they said we had to leave because we didn’t look right,’” Elborno said. “They were handpicking these people and they had nothing to go off of, besides the way the people looked.”
Cincinnati Chili with a little something extra tossed in:
If you ask me, beans and onions have no place in a 3-way or a 5-way.
Warhol must have known something when he silk-screened the hammer and sickle in black.
Thomas Jefferson in 1786:
“In America, no other distinction between man and man had ever been known but that of persons in office exercising powers by authority of the laws, and private individuals. Among these last, the poorest laborer stood on equal ground with the wealthiest millionaire, and generally on a more favored one whenever their rights seem to jar.”
Dennis Prager in 2008:
Equality, which is the primary value of the left, is a European value, not an American value.
If one chooses to ignore that equality is enshrined into our Declaration of Independence, Constitution and the very fabric of our polity, it is not a great leap then to also pretend that the Constitution was perfect from inception and thus to question, oh, say its codification of slavery, is to be anti-American. Of course, these are the same folks who are now relying on an unlicensed plumber to comfortably give off of the cuff remarks about tax policy and such because their Vice Presidential candidate is not up to it. But someone should tell Joe Sam that democracy and socialism are not mutually exclusive but actually work quite well together in many parts of this world:
Almost all of the world’s developed countries consider themselves, and are, social democracies: mixed economies with very large governments performing a wide array of welfare and social insurance functions, and removing large chunks of wealth and commodity distribution from the market.
. . .
The coming generation will be one of massive downward mobility for many Americans. The political struggles that this generates will determine whether America will move more closely to the social democratic norm for developed countries, or find some way to accept and rationalize its existence as a country of high economic risk and deep divisions of income and wealth.
That was J. Bradford DeLong in 2004, three years before the bottom fell out of the wealth on paper debt-driven economy. In just five years, from 2002 to 2007 the percentage of Fortune 100 companies that offered defined benefit plans (pensions) fell from 82% to 54%. Medical costs are increasingly being borne by retirees. The costs of tuition annually increase at about double the rate of inflation. Does Sam even understand what he is talking about? Does he realize that in the United States profits are privatized and losses are socialized? Has Sam been told that if were able to join the Plumber and Pipe Fitters union he would be eligible for a pension and health care but that right now his professional existence is at the whim of his employer? If after considering all of these things, Sam still believes that Obama will drive us into a Marxist state he can have at it.
After Obama hits it out of the park with a heartfelt tug on the sleeves of hardworking centrists, I guess the best response is to call the guy a Marxist.
To ABC today: “I truly believe that the wisdom of the people will be revealed on that day,” meaning November 4th. Couldn’t agree more.
From McClatchy News:
Out of bounds: McCain wrong on World Series delay
Throw the flag against: John McCain.
Call: Unsportsmanlike conduct.
What happened: “No one will delay the World Series game with an infomercial when I’m president,” the Republican presidential nominee told a crowd Tuesday in Hershey, Pa.
Democratic rival Barack Obama bought the 8-8:30 p.m. EDT slot on Fox and other major networks Wednesday night to air a campaign pitch. The first pitch of the World Series game, the resumption of rain-delayed Game 5, was set for approximately 8:37 p.m. EDT, about nine minutes later than usual.
Why that’s wrong: It’s not unusual for World Series games to start after 8:30 p.m., and according to the Web site Politico, the Fox executive who’s responsible for the Obama ad purchase said the infomercial was replacing only the pre-game show.
“Our first pitch for the World Series is usually around 8:30 anyway, so we didn’t push back the game. It was really just about suspending the pre-game, you know, Joe Buck,” said the account executive, Joe Coppola. “That’s all we did.”
The request to delay the game came from Major League Baseball.
McCain himself was responsible for shifting the time of the National Football League’s 2008 opening game. NBC moved the Washington Redskins-New York Giants game up at least an hour, to 7 p.m. EDT, so that McCain’s Republican convention speech could be broadcast around 10 p.m. on Sept. 4.
Penalty: 15 yards for misleading the public about Obama and the World Series.
When I’m picking a jury, I can always count on the closet racists to effectively hide their prejudice during voir dire and the liberals to tell everyone every little instant when they feel they’ve been slighted by The Man. Thus prosecutors know exactly who they’re kicking off with their challenges, “the bleeding hearted liberal,” while I’m trying to figure out who is playing hide-the-fascist.
Which brings me to today’s “Stupidest Person in the World,” with a tip of the hat to Olbermann, Robert L. Borosage, who not only is counting his chickens but also proclaiming to everyone what they’re going to look like:
If, as seems likely, Obama is elected and Democrats win greater majorities in both houses of Congress, will we witness a new era of bold progressive change - a 21st century Green New Deal?
Psst, Borosage, the brand is Change, not “progressive change,” now STFU and save your dreamy plans for after November 4th. There is no need to give locker-room material to the other side.
Criminal defense attorneys rejoice - Obama’s going to let all the criminal defendants out. Recidivism here we come!
The AP has a new set of battleground polls which are very encouraging for Obama. Meanwhile, the McCain camp is spending its time carrying the water for winger bloggers. (Psst, it appears that the Senator has been friendly with Palestinians, but then so has McCain in a green sort of way.) It is so time that grown-ups (i.e. realists) get in charge of our foreign policy. While calls are being made to release “icendiary” material, shouldn’t Palin also finally release her medical records and what of the Navy records which Vanity Fair has been trying to get which relate to a mysterious 1964 fatal car accident involving John McCain?
Update: Palin has now adopted the full regalia of a screeching right wing blogger.
It is best to ignore the national tracking polls. According to Nate Silver, most are static with Rasmussen and Research 2000 showing a bit of tightening. At the state level though, polls are interviewing far many more people, and may be getting a more accurate read of the state of the race:
We are approaching a pollster consensus in some battlegrounds. In certain states, the range of the polls has narrowed. Missouri and North Carolina now look like true toss-ups. Florida looks like a toss-up, leaning Obama. Ohio and Nevada lean clearly toward Obama, but McCain remains within striking distance. Colorado and Virginia lean more strongly toward Obama, and McCain may or may not be within striking distance. Pennsylvania has failed to tighten materially, and is probably not within striking distance. Likewise, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa appear safe for Obama.
States where there is a bit more disagreement are Indiana and New Hampshire. The former can be described as a toss-up and the latter as a lean Obama state, but the range of polling is wider than in most other states. Meanwhile, there has been relatively little polling of New Mexico, and it is hard to tell whether McCain is viable there or not.
I was a ten year old kid when I saw this photo in the Buffalo paper.
It is from Boston and the guy with the flag was so worked up over forced busing that he grabbed a flag and was getting ready to stab a black man with it (later I found out he was a prominent attorney). It was around the same time I became aware of pro sports and I equated the very white sports teams from Boston with this guy. Hated the Celtics ever since. A young mind works in strange ways and once prejudice sets in, it is hard to erase.
More on Pulitzer-winning The Soiling of Old Glory here. Keep in mind that we are just 32 years removed from that moment.
Cincinnati, Ohio. October 26, 2008
